28 February 2026 · Arisa Phan
A moving-average cross describes what already happened
A shorter average crossing a longer one is a fact about two smoothed series. By the time it prints, a large part of the move may already be on the chart. That does not make the cross useless. It makes it late, which is a property you can plan for.
In class we pair the cross with a slope condition and a range filter. If the longer average is flat, we treat the cross as noise. If it is already rising and the cross confirms that rise, the cross is a timestamp, not a surprise.
Write the rule before the next chart: “I act on a cross only when …” If you cannot finish the sentence, you are not running a system. You are collecting pictures of crosses.